Category: Loss Development and Trend

Risk Management: Analytically Based, Data Driven

A few months ago, we conducted a survey concerning the utilization of analytics in the retention decision process.  As I continue through the PhD program at Oklahoma State University my prospective dissertation topic continues to move toward the study of analytical capabilities within an organization and its correlation with organizational performance. While the risk management […]

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Simulation and Confidence Level Analysis

Loss simulations and confidence level analyses are important tools when budgeting for projected losses in the upcoming year. The projected loss pick determined by an actuary provides the expected or average value of losses, but it is also important to understand the volatility around the projected losses or to compare the effects of various per-occurrence […]

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Reserve Analysis and the ABC's of IBNR

In the SIGMA Tech Talk titled “Understanding Loss Development Factors,” we introduced IBNR losses as those losses which occur during a loss period but are not reported until a later date. The definition of IBNR also typically includes development of known claims. In this article, we look further at the significance and calculation of IBNR […]

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Understanding Loss Development Factors

Whether you are a broker, CFO, or risk manager, you have probably heard the terms loss development triangle, loss development factor, and IBNR (incurred but not reported losses). These are often included in the first analytical step of an actuarial analysis. Yet a survey of insurance professionals would likely result in a long list of […]

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What is IBNR?

An underwriter once emailed me declaring that the IB and R load was too high on a particular account. I never had the heart to ask him what the letters I, B, or R signified in that statement, but obviously that must be what IBNR sounds like when pronounced too fast or with an accent. […]

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Common Mistakes Using Loss Development Factors

The narrative support to an actuarial report or analysis normally contains a summary of loss development and loss development factors similar to this: The ultimate cost of claims reported in a specific time period is usually not known until several years after the close of that period. Therefore, loss development factors are used to project […]

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